What Analyst Consensus Looks Like When You Stop Looking At The Average
Two companies can have the same average estimate but completely different levels of agreement behind it
Jun 1611 min read
Geopolitical Risk Is a Lazy Label. The Market Prices the Shock Underneath
A Python event study of spot repricing, options skew, and sentiment across three market shocks On April 3, 2025, the US announced sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports. SPY dropped 4.8% that day. The next day it dropped another 6%. Financial news ran the usual headline: markets rattled by geopolitical uncertainty. Three months earlier, on August 5, 2024, the yen carry trade unwound. SPY dropped 3% in a single session. VIXY hit 65. Same headline: geopolitical uncertainty roils m
Jun 917 min read
